As can be seen from the data on this page, Ethereum’s price has been enormously volatile and therefore highly unpredictable over the short-term. However, longer-term trends are easier to predict, with fundamental metrics such as the total number of developers, community discussion and GitHub pull requests indicating a more accurate future price trend. Other methods to predict the price of Ethereum include metrics such as Network Value to Transaction ratio (NVT ratio) and the relative prices between coins. The method that we find most interesting is in that of the Ethereum-based prediction market, Augur. These predictions source the “wisdom of the crowd” to determine the likelihood of an outcome occurring and provide a significant level of insight into the market sentiment.
Armed with the knowledge of Ethereum’s price history, future predictions and the associated risks to investing in this cryptocurrency, you may now be considering a purchase. Buying Ethereum has evolved from a niche and slightly cumbersome process to one which has been polished into simplicity. Ethereum can now be bought through debit/credit card, epayment platforms, bank transfer, cash or even Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Speculators can bet on the asset (both long and short) through “contracts for difference” (CFDs) or they can purchase and secure the asset themselves to “become their own bank”.
In Ethereum all smart contracts are stored publicly on every node of the blockchain, which has costs. Being a blockchain means it is secure by design and is an example of a distributed computing system with high Byzantine fault tolerance. The downside is that performance issues arise in that every node is calculating all the smart contracts in real time, resulting in lower speeds. As of January 2016, the Ethereum protocol could process about 25 transactions per second. In comparison, the Visa payment platform processes 45,000 payments per second leading some to question the scalability of Ethereum. On 19 December 2016, Ethereum exceeded one million transactions in a single day for the first time.
Izabella Kaminska, the editor of FT Alphaville, has pointed out that criminals are using Ethereum to run Ponzi schemes and other forms of investment fraud. The article was based on a paper from the University of Cagliari, which placed the number of Ethereum smart contracts which facilitate Ponzi schemes at nearly 10% of 1384 smart contracts examined. However, it also estimated that only 0.05% of the transactions on the network were related to such contracts.