As can be seen from the data on this page, Ethereum’s price has been enormously volatile and therefore highly unpredictable over the short-term. However, longer-term trends are easier to predict, with fundamental metrics such as the total number of developers, community discussion and GitHub pull requests indicating a more accurate future price trend. Other methods to predict the price of Ethereum include metrics such as Network Value to Transaction ratio (NVT ratio) and the relative prices between coins. The method that we find most interesting is in that of the Ethereum-based prediction market, Augur. These predictions source the “wisdom of the crowd” to determine the likelihood of an outcome occurring and provide a significant level of insight into the market sentiment.
I believe currency, especially global decentralized ones, is a winner take all. There's an opportunity cost to holding two currencies. I can't have my maximal purchasing power in both, as one will be weaker. The only way for nano to succeed is to convince regular people to adopt it. And the best way to get regular people to adopt it, en masse, is to convince Bitcoin holders to give up their coins and switch. As of right now I'm not convinced.
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